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2021 Catalan regional election

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2021 Catalan regional election
← 2017 14 February 2021 2024 →
All 135 seats in the Parliament of Catalonia
68 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered5,624,067 Green arrow up1.3%
Turnout2,884,845 (51.3%)
Red arrow down27.8 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Salvador Illa Pere Aragonès Laura Borràs
Party PSC–PSOE ERC JxCat
Leader since 30 December 2020 20 November 2020 29 November 2020
Leader's seat Barcelona Barcelona Barcelona
Last election 17 seats, 13.9% 32 seats, 21.4% 20 seats (JuntsxCat)[a]
Seats won 33 33 32
Seat change Green arrow up16 Green arrow up1 Green arrow up12
Popular vote 654,766 605,581 570,539
Percentage 23.0% 21.3% 20.1%
Swing Green arrow up9.1 pp Red arrow down0.1 pp n/a
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Leader Ignacio Garriga Dolors Sabater Jéssica Albiach
Party Vox CUP–G ECP–PEC
Leader since 10 August 2020 12 December 2020 18 September 2018
Leader's seat Barcelona Barcelona Barcelona
Last election Did not contest 4 seats, 4.5% 8 seats, 7.5%
Seats won 11 9 8
Seat change Green arrow up11 Green arrow up5 Blue arrow right0
Popular vote 218,121 189,924 195,345
Percentage 7.7% 6.7% 6.9%
Swing New party Green arrow up2.2 pp Red arrow down0.6 pp
  Seventh party Eighth party Ninth party
 
Leader Carlos Carrizosa Alejandro Fernández Àngels Chacón
Party Cs PP PDeCAT
Leader since 19 August 2020 10 November 2018 2 November 2020
Leader's seat Barcelona Barcelona Barcelona (lost)
Last election 36 seats, 25.4% 4 seats, 4.2% 14 seats (JuntsxCat)[a]
Seats won 6 3 0
Seat change Red arrow down30 Red arrow down1 Red arrow down14
Popular vote 158,606 109,452 77,229
Percentage 5.6% 3.8% 2.7%
Swing Red arrow down19.8 pp Red arrow down0.4 pp n/a
Election result by constituency
President before election

Pere Aragonès (acting)
ERC

Elected President

Pere Aragonès
ERC

The 2021 Catalan regional election was held on Sunday, 14 February 2021, to elect the 13th/14th[1] Parliament of the autonomous community of Catalonia.[2][3] All 135 seats in the Parliament were up for election.

After the 2017 election, pro-Catalan independence parties secured a parliamentary majority, electing Quim Torra as new Catalan president after attempts to have Carles Puigdemont and Jordi Turull elected to the office were foiled by Spanish courts. However, in December 2019 Torra was disqualified by the High Court of Justice of Catalonia (TSJC) from holding any elected office and/or from exercising government powers for disobeying the Central Electoral Commission (JEC)'s rulings in the April 2019 Spanish general election campaign.[4][5] Torra remained as president as he appealed the ruling, but was stripped from his status as legislator in the Catalan parliament.[6][7] A snap election loomed over the horizon for several months as Torra announced his will to call one after the court rulings,[8] but the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in Spain stalled these plans.[9] On 28 September 2020, the TSJC's ruling was upheld by the Supreme Court of Spain, finally disqualifying Torra from office and paving the way for a regional election to be called for early 2021.[10]

Puigdemont announced his intention to lead the lists of his new Together for Catalonia (JxCat) party into the election, with former regional Culture minister Laura Borràs being selected as presidential candidate.[11][12] Concurrently, in a move widely seen as Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's personal bet for his party to obtain a strong performance in the election,[13][14] the Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC) selected health minister Salvador Illa, who had been at the helm of the Spanish government's response to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, as its leading candidate.[15]

Pro-independence parties gained a majority of the votes for the first time in an election and increased their parliamentary majority, though they lost over 600,000 votes from the previous elections amidst the lowest voter turnout in history, at just 51.3%.[16][17] The PSC under Salvador Illa emerged as the most voted political party while tying in seats as the largest parliamentary force for the first time in history. The far-right Vox placed fourth and entered Parliament for first time, winning 11 seats, to the collapse of both Citizens (which placed first in the previous election and fell to seventh, losing 30 seats) and the People's Party (which worsened its 2017 result, already its worst in history). The Catalan European Democratic Party (PDeCAT), the successor of the once-dominant Democratic Convergence of Catalonia (CDC), lost parliamentary representation after they failed to clear the electoral threshold. PDeCAT's extraparliamentary performance partially overturned the record for wasted votes (in vote share, but not raw votes) that had been set by CDC's erstwhile coalition partner, the Democratic Union of Catalonia (UDC), in 2015.[18][19][20]

Overview

[edit]

Electoral system

[edit]

The Parliament of Catalonia was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Catalonia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Catalan Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[21] As a result of no regional electoral law having been approved since the re-establishment of Catalan autonomy, the electoral procedure came regulated under Transitory Provision Fourth of the 1979 Statute, supplemented by the provisions within the national electoral law.[b] Voting for the Parliament was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Catalonia and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Catalans abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[22]

The 135 members of the Parliament of Catalonia were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Barcelona, Girona, Lleida and Tarragona, with each being allocated a fixed number of seats:[21][23]

Seats Constituencies
85 Barcelona
18 Tarragona
17 Girona
15 Lleida

In smaller constituencies, the use of the electoral method resulted in an effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies.[24]

Election date

[edit]

The term of the Parliament of Catalonia expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The regional president was required to call an election fifteen days prior to the date of expiry of parliament, with election day taking place within from forty to sixty days after the call. The previous election was held on 21 December 2017, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 21 December 2021. The election was required to be called no later than 6 December 2021, with it taking place up to the sixtieth day from the call, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Friday, 4 February 2022.[21]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Catalonia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since a previous one under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[21]

On 29 January 2020, President Quim Torra announced that he would be calling a snap election at some point throughout 2020 once the parliamentary procedures for the budget's approval were finalized,[8] after a government crisis erupted between Together for Catalonia (JuntsxCat) and Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) over Torra's being stripped of his status as legislator,[7][25] resulting from a court ruling condemning Torra for disobeying the Central Electoral Commission by not withdrawing partisan symbols from the Palau de la Generalitat's facade and not guaranteeing the institution's neutrality during the April 2019 Spanish general election campaign.[4][5]

While the budget's parliamentary transaction timetable was due to be over by 18 March, meaning that an election could be held as soon as Monday, 11 May, if called immediately—or 17 May if the long-term tradition of holding elections on a Sunday is kept[26][27]—members from both JuntsxCat and ERC hinted that the election could be delayed until after the summer, to be held in September–October 2020.[28][29] The risk existed that, in the meantime, the Supreme Court issued a firm ruling on Torra's disqualification that removed him from the president's office and thus deprived him of the prerogative of parliament dissolution.[27][30] The announcement of a possible snap 2020 election in Catalonia had the immediate side effect of triggering an early election in the Basque Country for 5 April, as Lehendakari Iñigo Urkullu sought to distance himself from the convoluted Catalan political landscape by avoiding any interference with the Basque election, which was initially not scheduled until autumn 2020.[31] This in turn precipitated the end of the legislature in Galicia, with regional president Alberto Núñez Feijóo announcing a snap election to be held simultaneously with the Basque one.[32]

In July 2020, it was revealed that former Catalan president and Torra's predecessor Carles Puigdemont initially sought to have the election being held on 4 October 2020, in order for his upcoming political party to benefit from the pro-independence nostalgia of the Diada and the third anniversary of the 2017 Catalan independence referendum, which would require the Parliament to be dissolved on 12 August.[33][34] However, severe COVID-19 outbreaks in the Lleida/Segrià and Barcelona metropolitan areas in mid-July forced these plans to be delayed.[35][36] Torra's disqualification[37] in late September led to the Catalan parliament agreeing to not appoint a replacement candidate for the regional premiership; with a parliamentary act being published on 21 October confirming such situation and starting the two month-legally established timetable until the automatic dissolution of the chamber; the election was scheduled to be held on 14 February 2021.[38] Eventually on 21 December, acting president Pere Aragonès signed the decree dissolving the Parliament of Catalonia, confirming 14 February as the election date.[39]

As a result of the worsening situation in Catalonia and in all of Spain because of mounting cases and deaths in the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, the election date was postponed to 30 May 2021.[40][41] However, after a legal challenge due to perceived irregularities in the decree, on 19 January the High Court of Justice of Catalonia decided to suspend the effects of the decision, with the election provisionally set to be held on the original 14 February date.[42][43] This decision was confirmed on 21 January. Although the decision could be appealed until 8 February, it was unlikely that the election would be suspended, with campaigning and electoral logistics already underway.[44]

Parliamentary composition

[edit]
Further information: 12th Parliament of Catalonia

The Parliament of Catalonia was officially dissolved on 21 December 2020, after the publication of the dissolution decree in the Official Journal of the Government of Catalonia.[45] The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of dissolution.[46][47][48]

Parliamentary composition in December 2020[49]
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
Citizens's Parliamentary Group Cs 36 36
Together for Catalonia's Parliamentary Group JxCat 24 34
PDeCAT 5
AxR 3
EV–AV 1
IdE 1
Republican Parliamentary Group ERC 30 32
DC 2
Socialists' and United to Advance
Parliamentary Group 		PSC 15 17
Els Units 2
Catalonia in Common–We Can's
Parliamentary Group 		CatComú 4 8
Podem 4
Mixed Group CUP 4 8
PP 4

Parties and candidates

[edit]

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[50]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances 		Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Votes (%) Seats
Cs
List
 Carlos Carrizosa Liberalism 25.35% 36 ☒N [51]
JxCat
List
 Laura Borràs Catalan independence
Sovereigntism
Populism 		21.66%[c] 34 checkY [11]
[52]
[53]
[54]
PDeCAT
List
 Àngels Chacón Catalan independence
Liberalism 		☒N [55]
[56]
[57]
ERC
List
 Pere Aragonès Catalan independence
Left-wing nationalism
Social democracy 		21.38% 32 checkY [58]
[59]
PSC–PSOE
List
 Salvador Illa Social democracy 13.86% 17 ☒N [60]
[61]
ECP–PEC
List
 Jéssica Albiach Left-wing populism
Direct democracy
Eco-socialism 		7.46% 8 ☒N [62]
[63]
[64]
CUP–G
List
 Dolors Sabater Catalan independence
Anti-capitalism
Socialism 		4.46% 4 ☒N [65]
[66]
PP
List
 Alejandro Fernández Conservatism
Christian democracy 		4.24% 4 ☒N [67]
[68]
Vox
List
 Ignacio Garriga Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism 		New party ☒N [69]

With the growing likelihood of a snap election from early 2020 onwards, speculation arose that both Citizens (Cs) and the People's Party (PP) would try to form a Navarra Suma-inspired electoral alliance of "constitutionalist" political forces.[70][71] Far-right party Vox discarded itself from joining any such coalition and announced that it would run on its own instead.[72] On 31 January 2020, Cs spokesperson in the Congress of Deputies Inés Arrimadas hinted at the possibility of such agreement being exported to Galicia and the Basque Country as well under the "Better United" umbrella (Spanish: Mejor Unidos), excluding Vox from such arrangement.[73][74] However, the heavy defeat of the PP+Cs formula in the 12 July Basque election sparked doubts within the regional PP's branch over the electoral viability of such an alliance in Catalonia.[75][76] Finally, with the snap election being confirmed for 14 February 2021, it was announced that no such alliance would be formed,[77] after the Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC) had declined a similar offer from Cs to join into such a platform.[78][79]

In July 2020, following the failure of negotiations between the Catalan European Democratic Party (PDeCAT) and former Catalan president Carles Puigdemont for the reorganization of the post-convergent space under the Together for Catalonia (JuntsxCat) umbrella because of the former's refusal to dissolve itself as a party, Puigdemont announced the founding of a new personalist party ahead of the upcoming regional election,[80] wrestling control over the JuntsxCat's brand away from the PDeCAT for his own use,[81][82] and breaking all ties with his former party.[83][84] The new party, a new Together for Catalonia (JxCat) which would advocate for the goal of achieving unilateral independence, was to be formed by the merger of the National Call for the Republic (CNxR), Action for the Republic (AxR) and splinter elements from the PDeCAT.[85] JxCat's formation process was started on 18 July with the public presentation of its imagery.[86][87] By mid-to-late July, Puigdemont's allies had been publicly calling for disgruntled members within a deeply-fractured PDeCAT to join their new JxCat party upon its founding congress,[36][88][89] leading Independence Rally (RI.cat) to forfeit its collaboration agreement with the former, which it had maintained since 2013.[90] From 29 August onwards and starting with the party's five senators,[91] members from the PDeCAT aligned to Puigdemont started defecting en masse from the former, in response to it announcing a formal sue on Puigdemont for taking over the JxCat's brand,[92][93][94] with Puigdemont himself forfeiting his PDeCAT membership on 31 August.[95] That same day, 9 out of the 14 remaining PDeCAT MPs in the Parliament of Catalonia left the party to join JxCat.[96][97]

The crisis within the post-convergent political space had also seen the founding of a new party, the Nationalist Party of Catalonia (PNC), from splinter elements of the PDeCAT opposing the idea of unilateral independence and disenchanted with Puigdemont's growing influence, with former coordinator-general Marta Pascal at its helm.[98][99] On 15 July 2020, it was announced that several parties resulting from the Convergence and Union (CiU) break up, namely Free (Lliures), Convergents (CNV) and Democratic League (LD), had agreed to form an electoral alliance ahead of the upcoming regional election,[100][101] with the PNC and Ramon Espadaler's United to Advance (Els Units), until then allied to the PSC, considering joining the new coalition as well.[102][103] On 23 July, Lliures, CNV and LD announced the creation of a joint commission to begin the drafting of a future electoral programme and invited Units, the PNC and the "moderate" sectors still in the PDeCAT, who favoured an alliance outside of Puigdemont's sphere of influence,[104] to join into "a broad centre alternative that included Catalanists and sovereignists."[105] By November 2020, Units, Lliures and LD were said to be favouring an electoral agreement with the PSC instead,[106][107] advocating for the establishment of a "broad Catalanist front".[108][109] However, eventually, a global agreement was not reached and PSC and Units renewed their electoral alliance without Lliures and LD.[60][110]

Former Prime Minister of France Manuel Valls, who had run in the 2019 Barcelona municipal election within Cs's lists and had broken up with Albert Rivera's party shortly afterwards, was also said to be considering launching his own bid for the regional election,[111] but Arrimadas's appointment as Cs leader hinted at the possibility of both parties mending their ties and exploring a joint platform.[112] By October 2020, Valls was reportedly uninterested in Catalan politics and was said to be planning a return to French politics, to be officialized after the 14 February regional election.[113]

In a surprise move on 30 December 2020, PSC leader Miquel Iceta announced that he would be stepping down as his party's leading candidate in the election, instead proposing incumbent Health minister Salvador Illa, who had borne the brunt of the Spanish government's management of the COVID-19 pandemic, for the post.[15] The move was interpreted as a high-risk gamble from the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), and from Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez in particular, to push for PSC's outright win in the regional election and put an end to the bloc politics that had settled down in Catalonia for the previous decade.[114] The same day, former Cs candidate and party spokesperson in the Spanish Senate, Lorena Roldán, announced that she was defecting from the party to join the PP lists.[115]

Timetable

[edit]

The key dates are listed below (all times are CET):[50][116]

  • 21 December: The election decree is issued with the countersign of the President.[45]
  • 22 December: Formal dissolution of the Parliament of Catalonia and beginning of a suspension period of events for the inauguration of public works, services or projects.
  • 25 December: Initial constitution of provincial and zone electoral commissions.
  • 1 January: Deadline for parties and federations intending to enter into a coalition to inform the relevant electoral commission.
  • 11 January: Deadline for parties, federations, coalitions, and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates to the relevant electoral commission.
  • 13 January: Submitted lists of candidates are provisionally published in the Official Journal of the Government of Catalonia (DOGC).
  • 15 January: The election is postponed to 30 May as a result of the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in Spain.[40]
  • 16 January: Deadline for citizens entered in the Register of Absent Electors Residing Abroad (CERA) and for citizens temporarily absent from Spain to apply for voting.
  • 17 January: Deadline for parties, federations, coalitions, and groupings of electors to rectify irregularities in their lists.
  • 18 January: Official proclamation of valid submitted lists of candidates.
  • 19 January: Proclaimed lists are published in the DOGC.
  • 29 January: Official start of electoral campaigning.[45]
  • 4 February: Deadline to apply for postal voting.
  • 9 February: Official start of legal ban on electoral opinion polling publication, dissemination or reproduction and deadline for CERA citizens to vote by mail.
  • 10 February: Deadline for postal and temporarily absent voters to issue their votes.
  • 12 February: Last day of official electoral campaigning and deadline for CERA citizens to vote in a ballot box in the relevant consular office or division.[45]
  • 13 February: Official 24-hour ban on political campaigning prior to the general election (reflection day).
  • 14 February: Polling day (polling stations open at 9 am and close at 8 pm or once voters present in a queue at/outside the polling station at 8 pm have cast their vote). Provisional counting of votes starts immediately.
  • 17 February: General counting of votes, including the counting of CERA votes.
  • 20 February: Deadline for the general counting of votes to be carried out by the relevant electoral commission.
  • 1 March: Deadline for elected members to be proclaimed by the relevant electoral commission.
  • 10 April: Final deadline for definitive results to be published in the DOGC.

Campaign

[edit]

Party slogans

[edit]
Party or alliance Slogan (Catalan) Slogan (Spanish) English translation Ref.
Cs « Perquè guanyem tots » « Para que ganemos todos » "So that we all win" [117]
ERC « Al costat de la gent » « Al lado de la gente » "On the side of the people" [118]
JxCat « Junts per fer. Junts per ser » « Juntos para hacer. Juntos para ser » "Together to do. Together to be." [119]
PSC–PSOE « Fem-ho » « Hagámoslo » "Let's do it" [120][121]
PDeCAT « Si t'ho penses, PDeCAT » « Si te lo piensas, PDeCAT » "If you think about it, PDeCAT" [122]
ECP–PEC « El canvi que Catalunya mereix » « El cambio que Cataluña merece » "The change that Catalonia deserves" [123][124]
CUP–G « Per guanyar » « Para ganar » "To win" [125]
PP « Una Catalunya millor » « Una Cataluña mejor » "A better Catalonia" [126]
Vox « Recuperem Catalunya » « Recuperemos Cataluña » "Let's get Catalonia back" [127][128]

Election debates

[edit]
2021 Catalan regional election debates
Date Organisers Moderator(s)     P  Present[d]    S  Surrogate[e]    NI  Not invited   A  Absent invitee 
Cs ERC JxCat PSC PDeCAT ECP CUP PP Vox Audience Ref.
29 January La Vanguardia Enric Sierra P
Carrizosa 		P
Aragonès 		P
Borràs 		P
Illa 		P
Chacón 		P
Albiach 		P
Sabater 		P
Fernández 		P
Garriga 		— [129]
31 January RTVE Xabier Fortes P
Carrizosa 		P
Aragonès 		P
Borràs 		P
Illa 		P
Chacón 		P
Albiach 		S
Riera 		P
Fernández 		P
Garriga 		10.7%
(242,000)[f] 		[130]
[131]
5 February Cadena SER
(Aquí, amb Josep Cuní) 		Josep Cuní P
Carrizosa 		P
Aragonès 		P
Borràs 		P
Illa 		P
Chacón 		P
Albiach 		P
Sabater 		A NI — [132]
8 February RTVE
(El Vespre)[g] 		Marta Sugrañes P
Soler 		P
Vilalta 		NI P
Ordeig 		P
Solsona 		P
Moya 		P
Juvillà 		P
Xandri 		NI — [133]
9 February RTVE
(El Vespre)[h] 		Marta Sugrañes P
Alonso 		P
Sans 		NI P
Ibarra 		P
Arza 		P
Jordan 		P
Estrada 		P
Rodríguez 		NI — [134]
9 February CCMA Vicent Sanchis P
Carrizosa 		P
Aragonès 		P
Borràs 		P
Illa 		P
Chacón 		P
Albiach 		P
Sabater 		P
Fernández 		P
Garriga 		26.0%
(601,000) 		[135]
[136]
10 February RTVE
(El Vespre)[i] 		Marta Sugrañes P
Castel 		P
Jordà 		NI P
Paneque 		P
Dulsat 		P
Lluch 		P
Cornellà 		P
Olmedo 		NI — [137]
10 February CCMA
(Més 324)[h] 		Xavier Graset P
Alonso 		P
Sans 		P
Batet 		P
Ibarra 		P
Arza 		P
Jordan 		P
Estrada 		P
Rodríguez 		S
Macián 		— [138]
11 February CCMA
(Més 324)[g] 		Xavier Graset P
Soler 		P
Vilalta 		P
Tremosa 		P
Ordeig 		P
Solsona 		P
Moya 		P
Juvillà 		P
Xandri 		A — [139]
11 February laSexta Ana Pastor P
Carrizosa 		P
Aragonès 		P
Borràs 		P
Illa 		P
Chacón 		P
Albiach 		S
Estrada 		P
Fernández 		P
Garriga 		19.4%[j] [140]
[141]
12 February CCMA
(Més 324)[i] 		Xavier Graset P
Castel 		P
Jordà 		P
Geis 		P
Paneque 		P
Dulsat 		P
Lluch 		P
Cornellà 		P
Olmedo 		P
Tarradas 		— [142]

Opinion polls

[edit]

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary

[edit]
Local regression trend line of poll results from 21 December 2017 to 14 February 2021, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Voting intention estimates

[edit]

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 68 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Catalonia.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

Voting preferences

[edit]

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

Victory preferences

[edit]

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Victory likelihood

[edit]

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Preferred President

[edit]

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Government of Catalonia.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

Voter turnout

[edit]

The table below shows registered vote turnout on election day without including voters from the Census of Absent-Residents (CERA).

Province Time
13:00 18:00 20:00
2017 2021 +/– 2017 2021 +/– 2017 2021 +/–
Barcelona 34.58% 22.48% –12.10 68.58% 45.81% –22.77 83.81% 53.75% –30.06
Girona 35.20% 24.30% –10.90 68.16% 46.99% –21.17 82.04% 54.77% –27.27
Lleida 34.41% 24.14% –10.27 66.65% 45.95% –20.70 81.26% 54.65% –26.61
Tarragona 35.11% 22.68% –12.43 66.84% 42.77% –24.07 80.85% 50.37% –30.48
Total 34.69% 22.77% –11.92 68.26% 45.61% –22.65 82.45% 53.54% –28.91
Sources[143]

Results

[edit]

Overall

[edit]
← Summary of the 14 February 2021 Parliament of Catalonia election results →
Parties and alliances Popular vote Seats
Votes % ±pp Total +/−
Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC–PSOE) 654,766 23.03 +9.17 33 +16
Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) 605,581 21.30 –0.08 33 +1
Together for Catalonia (JxCat)1 570,539 20.07 n/a 32 +12
Vox (Vox) 218,121 7.67 New 11 +11
In Common We Can–We Can In Common (ECP–PEC)2 195,345 6.87 –0.59 8 ±0
Popular Unity Candidacy–A New Cycle to Win (CUP–G) 189,924 6.68 +2.22 9 +5
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (Cs) 158,606 5.58 –19.77 6 –30
People's Party (PP) 109,453 3.85 –0.39 3 –1
Catalan European Democratic Party (PDeCAT)1 77,229 2.72 n/a 0 –14
Zero Cuts–Green Group–Municipalists (Recortes Cero–GV–M) 12,783 0.45 +0.21 0 ±0
Primaries for the Independence of Catalonia Movement (MPIC) 6,017 0.21 New 0 ±0
National Front of Catalonia (FNC) 5,003 0.18 New 0 ±0
Nationalist Party of Catalonia (PNC) 4,560 0.16 New 0 ±0
Communist Party of the Workers of Catalonia (PCTC) 4,515 0.16 New 0 ±0
Left in Positive (IZQP) 2,073 0.07 New 0 ±0
We Are the Ebre Lands (Som Terres de l'Ebre) 1,415 0.05 New 0 ±0
For a Fairer World (PUM+J) 1,339 0.05 +0.04 0 ±0
European Union of Pensioners (UEP) 635 0.02 New 0 ±0
Blank Seats (EB) 591 0.02 New 0 ±0
United for Democracy+Retirees (Unidos SI–DEf–PDSJE–Somos España) 429 0.02 New 0 ±0
Alliance for Commerce and Housing (Alianza CV) 173 0.01 New 0 ±0
Catalan Civil Support (SCAT) 137 0.00 New 0 ±0
Red Current Movement (MCR) 94 0.00 New 0 ±0
Blank ballots 24,087 0.85 +0.41
Total 2,843,415 135 ±0
Valid votes 2,843,415 98.56 –1.07
Invalid votes 41,430 1.44 +1.07
Votes cast / turnout 2,884,845 51.29 –27.80
Abstentions 2,739,222 48.71 +27.80
Registered voters 5,624,067
Sources[144]
Footnotes:
Popular vote
PSC–PSOE
 
 23.03%
ERC
 
 21.30%
JxCat
 
 20.07%
Vox
 
 7.67%
ECP–PEC
 
 6.87%
CUP–G
 
 6.68%
Cs
 
 5.58%
PP
 
 3.85%
PDeCAT
 
 2.72%
Others
 
 1.40%
Blank ballots
 
 0.85%
Seats
PSC–PSOE
 
 24.44%
ERC
 
 24.44%
JxCat
 
 23.70%
Vox
 
 8.15%
CUP–G
 
 6.67%
ECP–PEC
 
 5.93%
Cs
 
 4.44%
PP
 
 2.22%

Distribution by constituency

[edit]
Constituency PSC ERC JxCat Vox ECP–PEC CUP–G Cs PP
% S % S % S % S % S % S % S % S
Barcelona 25.0 23 20.4 19 17.9 16 7.8 7 7.8 7 6.3 5 6.1 5 4.0 3
Girona 15.2 3 21.8 4 32.7 7 6.1 1 4.0 − 9.0 2 3.3 − 2.0 −
Lleida 15.0 3 26.6 5 28.0 5 5.5 1 3.2 − 7.4 1 3.2 − 3.5 −
Tarragona 20.0 4 24.5 5 19.4 4 9.4 2 4.9 1 6.8 1 5.2 1 4.3 −
Total 23.0 33 21.3 33 20.1 32 7.7 11 6.9 8 6.7 9 5.6 6 3.8 3
Sources[144]

Aftermath

[edit]
See also: Government of Pere Aragonès

Acting president Pere Aragonès (ERC) stood for president in a vote in the legislature on 26 March 2021, but failed due to divisions in the independence movement. He was supported by ERC and the CUP, but the rival JxCat party abstained, meaning he received only 42 votes (of 68 required), to 61 against.[145] A second vote, requiring only a simple majority, took place on 30 March and also failed, with ERC and the CUP again voting to support his candidacy and JxCat abstaining.[146] The three parties finally reached agreement on 17 May 2021, and Aragonès was elected with the votes of ERC, JxCat and CUP.[147]

Investiture
Pere Aragonès (ERC)
Ballot → 26 March 2021 30 March 2021
Required majority → 68 out of 135 ☒N Simple ☒N
Yes
42 / 135
42 / 135
No
61 / 135
61 / 135
Abstentions
32 / 135
32 / 135
Absentees
0 / 135
0 / 135
Sources[148]
Investiture
Pere Aragonès (ERC)
Ballot → 21 May 2021
Required majority → 68 out of 135 checkY
Yes
74 / 135
No
61 / 135
Abstentions
0 / 135
Absentees
0 / 135
Sources[149]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b Within the JuntsxCat alliance in the 2017 election. Totals for the new JxCat refer to the 20 independent candidates elected within JuntsxCat's lists, who ended up joining Puigdemont-aligned parties such as CNxR or AxR and, eventually, JxCat itself. On the other hand, and following a dispute between the two parties over the JuntsxCat's brand, the PDeCAT preserved the late's electoral rights and financing over the claim presented by JxCat.
  2. ^ Transitory Provision Second of the 2006 Statute maintained the validity of the electoral regulations within the 1979 Statute, of application for as long as a specific law regulating the procedures for elections to the Parliament of Catalonia was not approved.
  3. ^ Results for JuntsxCat in the 2017 election.
  4. ^ Denotes a main invitee attending the event.
  5. ^ Denotes a main invitee not attending the event, sending a surrogate in their place.
  6. ^ The debate was broadcast nationwide on 24 Horas, obtaining an audience of 0.9% (152,000)
  7. ^ a b Debate between Lleida constituency leading candidates.
  8. ^ a b Debate between Tarragona constituency leading candidates.
  9. ^ a b Debate between Girona constituency leading candidates.
  10. ^ The debate was broadcast nationwide, obtaining an audience of 8.0% (1,279,000).
  11. ^ Alternative projection based on raw CIS data.
  12. ^ a b c d e f Within PP+Cs.

References

[edit]
Opinion poll sources
  1. ^ ""Efecto Puigdemont"". La Razón (in Spanish). 14 February 2021.
  2. ^ "Illa ganaría en votos y ERC en escaños, pero el independentismo reforzaría su mayoría absoluta". RTVE (in Spanish). 14 February 2021.
  3. ^ "Sondeig 14F: ERC guanyaria frec a frec amb el PSC i l'independentisme superaria el 50% dels vots". CCMA (in Spanish). 14 February 2021.
  4. ^ "Junts habría ganado las elecciones con leve ventaja sobre el PSC y ERC". El Español (in Spanish). 14 February 2021.
  5. ^ "Enquesta El Nacional Catalunya: Junts i el PSC frec a frec amb ERC a tocar". El Nacional (in Spanish). 14 February 2021.
  6. ^ "Triple empate entre PSC, ERC y JxCat con Vox como cuarta fuerza del Parlament". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 14 February 2021.
  7. ^ "Estimación resultados 14 de Febrero 2021 Cataluña. Autonómicas 2021". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 14 February 2021.
  8. ^ "Catalonia expected to be gripped by independence fever after election". The National. 13 February 2021.
  9. ^ "CatsPanel (12F 22h – Final): triple empate técnico que deja el final de carrera tan apretado como el principio". Electomanía (in Spanish). 12 February 2021. Archived from the original on 12 February 2021. Retrieved 12 February 2021.
  10. ^ "CatsPanel (12F – 10:00): GatIlla recupera terreno y se coloca primero. Baja Catragonès". Electomanía (in Spanish). 12 February 2021. Archived from the original on 12 February 2021. Retrieved 12 February 2021.
  11. ^ a b c "PSC y ERC llegan a las elecciones empatados y con JxCat a la zaga". El Periòdic d'Andorra (in Spanish). 13 February 2021.
  12. ^ "Pro-independence Junts on course to win Catalan Parliament election". The National. 13 February 2021.
  13. ^ "CATALUÑA. Encuesta Metroscopia 13/02/2021: CUP-G 5,9% (8), JxCAT 21,1% (34), ERC 20,3% (29), PDeCAT 2,2% (1), ECP-PEC 6,4% (7), PSC 23,2% (32), Cs 9,0% (12), PP 5,3% (6), VOX 5,4% (6)". Electograph (in Spanish). 13 February 2021.
  14. ^ "CatsPanel (11F): sarpasso de GataBorràs, que se coloca primera. GatIlla pierde 1p tras el DeGat". Electomanía (in Spanish). 11 February 2021. Archived from the original on 11 February 2021. Retrieved 11 February 2021.
  15. ^ a b c "La bajada de los indecisos no rompe la igualdad a dos días de las elecciones catalanas". El Periòdic d'Andorra (in Spanish). 12 February 2021.
  16. ^ "Pro-independence Junts per Catalunya leading Catalan election race in poll". The National. 12 February 2021.
  17. ^ "CatsPanel (10F): SaGater arrebata un felino a GatIlla". Electomanía (in Spanish). 10 February 2021. Archived from the original on 10 February 2021. Retrieved 10 February 2021.
  18. ^ a b c "El PDECat se acerca al Parlament y sigue erosionando a Junts". El Periòdic d'Andorra (in Spanish). 11 February 2021.
  19. ^ "Tie at top of Catalan election race broken with just days until poll". The National. 11 February 2021.
  20. ^ "CatsPanel (9F): bajan ligeramente las adopciones de GatIlla y Catragonès". Electomanía (in Spanish). 9 February 2021. Archived from the original on 9 February 2021. Retrieved 9 February 2021.
  21. ^ a b c "El PSC recupera ventaja en cabeza y Vox sería la cuarta fuerza en Catalunya". El Periòdic d'Andorra (in Spanish). 10 February 2021.
  22. ^ "Two main Catalan pro-independence parties neck and neck in election poll". The National. 10 February 2021.
  23. ^ "CATALUÑA. Encuesta Celeste-Tel 08/02/2021: CUP-G 5,3% (7), JxCAT 20,0% (31), ERC 19,7% (30), PDeCAT 1,5%, ECP-PEC 7,5% (8), PSC 21,8% (31), Cs 10,2% (14), PP 5,6% (7), VOX 6,0% (7)". Electograph (in Spanish). 8 February 2021.
  24. ^ "CatPanel (8F): Junts, primero en escaños. Subidón de Vox, el PP cae a la octava plaza". Electomanía (in Spanish). 8 February 2021. Archived from the original on 8 February 2021. Retrieved 8 February 2021.
  25. ^ a b c d "Triple empate entre PSC, ERC y JxCat a cinco días de las elecciones catalanas". El Periòdic d'Andorra (in Spanish). 9 February 2021.
  26. ^ "Junts per Catalunya takes slight lead over rivals ERC and PSC five days ahead of the election". The National. 9 February 2021.
  27. ^ "ERC atrapa al PSC y Junts en la última encuesta legal del 14-F". El Nacional (in Spanish). 8 February 2021.
  28. ^ "Sondeo final en Cataluña: Illa se consolida líder en votos y Vox ya disputa el cuarto puesto a Cs". El Español (in Spanish). 8 February 2021.
  29. ^ a b c d e "Habrá una abstención récord en Cataluña: la participación podría no llegar al 50%". El Español (in Spanish). 8 February 2021.
  30. ^ "ERC será la fuerza más votada el 14F, superando por la mínima al PSC y empatando en escaños con JxCat". Público (in Spanish). 7 February 2021.
  31. ^ "El PSC ganaría las elecciones catalanas y Vox llegaría a obtener hasta 7 diputados, dando el sorpaso al PP". El Mundo Financiero (in Spanish). 8 February 2021.
  32. ^ "Salvador Illa ganaría el 14-F y Oriol Junqueras elegiría quién gobierna Cataluña". El Mundo (in Spanish). 6 February 2021.
  33. ^ a b "Encuesta elecciones catalanas 2021: El desplome de la participación acerca a ERC al PSC y castiga a Cs y PP". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 7 February 2021.
  34. ^ "Triple empate con riesgo de bloqueo". La Razón (in Spanish). 8 February 2021.
  35. ^ "CatPanel (5F): Junts alcanza el 20% y las distancias entre los tres primeros se reducen al mínimo". Electomanía (in Spanish). 5 February 2021. Archived from the original on 5 February 2021. Retrieved 5 February 2021.
  36. ^ "El independentismo se impondría el 14-F ante el insuficiente avance de Illa". El Nacional (in Spanish). 6 February 2021.
  37. ^ "Triple empate de Junts, ERC y PSC mientras Vox roza el sorpasso al PP a costa de Cs". OKDiario (in Spanish). 8 February 2021.
  38. ^ "Mínim avantatge d'ERC sobre PSC i JxCat a set dies del 14-F". Ara (in Catalan). 6 February 2021.
  39. ^ a b c d e "Tendencias de voto en Cataluña 2021 (Estudio nº 3310. Febrero 2021)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 4 February 2021.
  40. ^ "Estimación de voto (Estudio nº 3310. Febrero 2021)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 4 February 2021.
  41. ^ "Junts y ERC empatan en diputados en Lleida,el PSC obtiene dos y CUP y PP lo recuperan". Segre (in Spanish). 8 February 2021.
  42. ^ "Encuesta DYM. Dos posibles escenarios tras el 14-F: tripartito de izquierdas... o frente independentista". 20 minutos (in Spanish). 5 February 2021.
  43. ^ "14-F: unas elecciones condicionadas por la pandemia y su influencia en la participación". DYM (in Spanish). 5 February 2021.
  44. ^ "Encuesta: El PSC ganaría las elecciones catalanas en intención de voto y podría formar un tripartito de izquierdas con ERC y los comunes". Antena 3 (in Spanish). 31 January 2021.
  45. ^ "CATALUÑA. Encuesta SigmaDos 31/01/2021: CUP-G 5,3% (5/7), JxCAT 20,7% (30/32), ERC 21,2% (31/33), ECP-PEC 7,3% (7/8), PSC 22,5% (29/32), Cs 10,3% (12/14), PP 5,6% (6/7), VOX 5,1% (6/7)". Electograph (in Spanish). 31 January 2021.
  46. ^ "Junts toma una leve ventaja en el triple empate con PSC y ERC a menos de dos semanas de la batalla". El Español (in Spanish). 1 February 2021.
  47. ^ "Illa coge impulso y se acerca a la cabeza". La Razón (in Spanish). 1 February 2021.
  48. ^ "CatPanel (29E): Baja ERC, sube Junts y la campaña arranca ajustadísima". Electomanía (in Spanish). 29 January 2021. Archived from the original on 28 January 2021. Retrieved 29 January 2021.
  49. ^ a b c d "Encuesta elecciones catalanas 2021: El auge de los indecisos mantiene en vilo la pugna por la victoria el 14-F". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 31 January 2021.
  50. ^ "CatPanel (22e): Sube el PSC, baja Junts". Electomanía (in Spanish). 22 January 2021. Archived from the original on 25 January 2021. Retrieved 22 January 2021.
  51. ^ "El PSC de Salvador Illa sería la lista más votada y empataría con Junts a escaños: ERC, muy cerca". El Español (in Spanish). 25 January 2021.
  52. ^ "El no "efecto Illa" y la caída de Cs abocan a otro gobierno soberanista en Cataluña". La Razón (in Spanish). 25 January 2021.
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  54. ^ "CatPanel (15E): ERC y el PSC suben y Junts baja, pero siguen muy apretados los escaños". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 January 2021. Archived from the original on 22 January 2021. Retrieved 15 January 2021.
  55. ^ "Tezanos cambia el método del CIS para inflar el resultado de Illa y de ERC". Economía Digital (in Spanish). 26 January 2021.
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  58. ^ "CatPanel (8E): sorpasso de Junts a ERC en escaños, subidón del PSC". Electomanía (in Spanish). 8 January 2021. Archived from the original on 8 January 2021. Retrieved 8 January 2021.
  59. ^ "ERC sigue en cabeza pero PSC y Junts se acercan y pugnan por la segunda plaza". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 10 January 2021.
  60. ^ "Encuesta elecciones en Catalunya 2021: El PSC ganaría el 14-F tras la irrupción de Illa". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 8 January 2021.
  61. ^ a b "Salvador Illa acerca a los socialistas al triple empate en Cataluña a la semana de ser elegido candidato". El Español (in Spanish). 6 January 2021.
  62. ^ "El último sondeo explica la apuesta por Salvador Illa: los 'indepes' ampliarían hoy su ventaja en Cataluña". El Español (in Spanish). 31 December 2020.
  63. ^ "CatPanel (20D): la CUP arrebata un escaño a Junts. El independentismo roza el 51%". Electomanía (in Spanish). 20 December 2020. Archived from the original on 20 December 2020. Retrieved 20 December 2020.
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  66. ^ "CatPanel (30N): ERC ganaría las elecciones. Ni PDeCat, ni PNC". Electomanía (in Spanish). 30 November 2020. Archived from the original on 14 January 2021. Retrieved 30 November 2020.
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  70. ^ "ERC se impondría en las elecciones catalanas, pero el independentismo no llegaría al 50% de los votos". Público (in Spanish). 17 October 2020.
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  72. ^ "Encuesta NC Report. El independentismo se estanca: repetiría el 47,7% del voto". La Razón (in Spanish). 5 October 2020.
  73. ^ "CATALUÑA. Encuesta NC Report 05/10/2020: CUP 4,5% (6), JxCAT 20,0% (31), ERC 23,2% (35), CATCOMÚ-PODEM 7,8% (9), PSC 17,8% (25), Cs 11,9% (16), PP 7,6% (10), VOX 5,0% (3)". Electograph (in Spanish). 5 October 2020.
  74. ^ "ERC se afianza ante JxCat, que atrapa la segunda plaza pese al alza del PSC". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 6 September 2020.
  75. ^ "EP Autonómico (31ago): empate ERC-JxCat en Cataluña, el independentismo roza el 50%. Ayuso, la más votada en la CAM. La izquierda cerca del 60% en Asturias". Electomanía (in Spanish). 31 August 2020. Archived from the original on 21 September 2020. Retrieved 31 August 2020.
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  78. ^ "ERC guanyaria les eleccions amb comoditat i l'independentisme superaria el 50%". El Nacional (in Catalan). 6 July 2020.
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  84. ^ "Sondeo GAD3 para ABC. Elecciones catalanas (2 marzo)". GAD3 (in Spanish). 2 March 2020.
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  86. ^ "ERC aventaja a JxCat y lideraría una mayoría independentista reforzada". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 9 February 2020.
  87. ^ "Reto independentista en las urnas". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 2 February 2020.
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  89. ^ "Una coalición entre Cs y PP sumaría hoy poco más de la mitad de escaños que tuvieron en 2017". El Español (in Spanish). 2 February 2020.
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